The Battle For State House

Uncertain times in Kenya as an epic presidential race's climax approaches.

Kenya’s upcoming election on Tuesday, August 9th 2022 has been unusual even by the standards of Kenya, which is home to some of the most competitive elections on the African continent as a whole. A titanic battle between two dynamic personalities, it has featured countless negative attacks and personal antagonism. What makes this election even more unique is that for the first time it features a candidate who hasn’t made ethnic identity or coalitions his primary standpoint in terms of an electoral strategy, but instead has made a passionate outreach based on class politics.

The dynamic personalities, Raila Odinga and William Ruto. One of these men is the next Kenyan president.

This very act will be transformative for Kenyan politics going forward as it adds an ideological element that wasn’t as present in prior elections. The election is also fascinating as it also features the following: a Godfather of the Kenyan political scene featuring in his last stand for power, the first ever female vice presidential candidate, a whole host of exciting developments on the parliamentary and county governor races, and a world of trouble for the winners of all of these races in the policy reckoning after the vote.

Fundamentals

The vote features on one side long tenured statesman, Raila Odinga, the 77 year old presidential candidate for ODM and the broader Azimio La Umoja alliance of parties. A once notable political rival of President Uhuru Kenyatta, Odinga is now a converted ally and staunch backer of the president. Odinga is a member of the famed Odinga dynasty, his father was Kenya’s first vice president before being exiled from politics and later arrested by Uhuru’s own father, the first president of Kenya, due to policy disagreements.(Kenyan politics has overbearing dramatic dynastic tones, for example just look at the tale of Barack Obama Sr).

Odinga for decades was at the very frontlines of opposition politics as a dissident and then politician, a man so devoted to the cause he at one point was Kenya’s longest serving political prisoner during the autocratic Moi years. This is his fifth run for the highest office, and these days, he is acknowledged as one of the Godfathers of Kenyan Democracy. After his disappointing defeats in 2013 and 2017 when polls seemed to indicate that victory would be his in elections against Kenyatta, there’s a huge desire among his base and his political allies to ensure that 2022 is surely is his time. He’s come to the end of his line.

His campaign has been fairly traditional. His platform issues big promises on welfare and social aid that almost certainly won’t be enacted due to budgetary constraints. Another major aspect of his campaign is ensuring that loyal and local ethnic bases are primed to turn out to vote for him in large numbers through long established networked “Get out the vote” efforts, and of course aligning most of the political and business establishment behind his run.

The man, the legend, Raila Odinga. Every African country seemingly has a “he’s run for the presidency four times and hasn’t given up yet, but I think he’ll get it this time” type. For Kenya, Raila Odinga is that guy.

In this election, Odinga is up against William Ruto, the 55 year old presidential candidate for the UDA party and the broader Kenya Kwanza(Kenya First) alliance, a firebrand Christian man who has conquered the Kenyan political game over a three decade long career.

Ruto was raised in backbreaking poverty in a village near Eldoret, a boy who grew up selling chicken in roadside stalls when he wasn’t in school. He found prominence at the University of Nairobi as a student delegate for the once dominant KANU party in the late 80s and early 90s, where he explains he found inspiration in Daniel Arap Moi, Kenya’s long serving president who largely ruled the country with a iron fist and a stern hand from 1978 to 2002.

He became a man who went from being Kenyatta’s stalwart Deputy President to now the man who decries the existence of “dynasties” and portrays himself as the “Hustler” who represents a broader “Hustler Nation”, the man who can end the long dynastic reign of Kenya’s political establishment, hence the central theme of his candidacy “hustlers vs dynasties”. A gifted orator, Ruto can send a crowd into raptures with this message.

Ruto is a bit famous around Kenya for handing out gifts like Wheelbarrows and other farming tools at his rallies.

Now bear in mind Ruto is now a very rich man, a man who owns thousands of acres in Kenya, a luxury hotel in prime Nairobi, and multiple industrial companies. He’s far removed from the childhood poverty that once defined him. To a strain of Kenyan youth feeling disenfranchised, he is the Kenyan dream in walking, breathing, and living form.

And that’s what makes this election so fascinating, it marks a turn in Kenya’s political evolution where a candidate for the first time hasn’t made ethnic ties the foremost flagpole of his electoral outreach. In that, it represents an interesting turn for the continent’s democracies as a whole.

Ruto has attracted an interesting collection of allies and intellectuals(including Twitter and Real world famous David Ndii), all who can smell an exciting attempt at Kenyan and continental history being made. For Ruto’s supporters, the past six decades have largely witnessed the Kenyatta dynasty and its interlopers (Moi + Kibaki and now Odinga) dominate Kenyan politics and even commerce. The sense of knocking that esteemed family off the perch of Kenya’s politics motivates quite a bit of energy.

The current Deputy President of Kenya, William Ruto, was long thought to be seen as the natural heir of Uhuru Kenyatta. History has seemingly flipped to make the politician a firebrand now nearly on the cusp of causing a Kenyan political earthquake.

Now does this end the dominance of ethnicity in Kenyan politics? No not at all, even this very election as we will see is still being fought on ethnic grounds to a certain extent, and multiple ethnic-geographic considerations means we’ll be staring closely at the national map throughout the week seeing how certain margins shifted, and where certain battleground counties ended up. It still marks the start of a useful evolution and tenor for Kenyan and East African politics as a whole. Let’s now evaluate the contest to a deeper level now.

The Campaign

The overall campaign has been conducted with a degree of animosity that has for even prior measures of Kenyan politics been surprising. A lot has happened throughout the campaign and in the past few years in Kenyan politics to generate this level of animus, here’s how we got to this point.

March 2018 - Following a controversial 2017 election which was ordered to be replayed by the Supreme Court of Kenya, President Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga conduct a famous handshake. This ends the post election drama in which Raila boycotted the election replay, refused to cooperate with Uhuru’s sworn in government, and even inaugurated himself as the “people’s president”.

The two modern giants of Kenyan politics agree that a committee should be formed that over the next year and a half will look at core failings of the Kenyan state and electoral processes since the 1960s, and offer recommendations on how to upgrade the current state.

Little known to everyone, the handshake likely came with an understanding that Uhuru would back Raila at the next election and also pass certain reforms to increase Raila’s powers even despite his loss. The handshake also came right before a visit to Nairobi at the time by then United States Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, so it was the perfect timing.

Don’t they look like friends? Always great to have old pals. Especially after you’ve fought three hard elections against each other since like 2007. Yeah what was all that about? I don’t remember either.

Early 2020 - The BBI committee comes out with the Building Bridges Initiative report, this report calls for an entire restructuring of the Kenyan state. It endorses the President being able to appoint a Prime Minister as well as two deputy Prime ministers, and calls for parliament being expanded from 290 to 361 seats. Its findings are endorsed by President Kenyatta and Raila Odinga, the leader of the opposition, who package it into a bill that they seek to pass through parliament. For Raila and his supporters, this is seen as the price that Uhuru owes them through the “handshake”.

William Ruto and members of his faction rebel against the endorsements. To them this seems like one huge plot to entrench power by Kenyatta and it gives extraordinary power to the president to sideline him in favor of his increasingly buddy buddy relationship with Raila Odinga. The contours of BBI also means that a future President Odinga could potentially appoint Uhuru as his Prime Minister. Ruto, who continued to serve as Deputy President in 2017 under the understanding that he would seemingly get Uhuru’s future endorsement sees this as his opportunity to formally break with the president and he openly starts campaigning against the recommendations of BBI. He seizes this issue to take his prominence into a new stratosphere.

The Campaign Continued

August 2021 - Kenya’s Court Of Appeals rules the BBI initiative as its currently packaged as a bill in parliament as unconstitutional. They argue that since the bill takes such a massive hammer to the Kenyan state that it requires a formal constitutional amendment or a constitutional referenda open to the public. This formally ends the dreams of BBI and softly starts the presidential contest. Even despite the disappointment of BBI failing, Kenyatta pitches his tent with Odinga, while Ruto feeling victorious post BBI failure begins his campaign around a narrative of “Hustlers Vs Dynasties”.

Kenya’s judiciary in recent years has been given massive plaudits for its independent decision-making and its boldness in challenging executive power. They’ll be needed again the likely post election drama to settle nerves and bring decisive judgement.

December 2021 - The Kenyan Parliament passes a law that allows political parties to form broad coalitions that can unite around one single presidential candidate. This leads to two dominant blocs forming. Azimo La Umoja around Odinga’s ODM party, and Kenya Kwanza around Ruto’s UDA. Ruto opposes the bill as he sees it as giving a life raft to Odinga and giving him an easier chance to build a broad geographic + ethnic based coalition. The bill is passed regardless and he’s forced as well to build his own coalition. Proceedings are so harsh that a fistfight breaks out in the Kenyan parliament itself over the legislation before the final vote.

You know the politicians care when they start slapping each other silly over a bill. Fight Club Nairobi.

June 2022 - Both major alliances formally at this time introduced their VP candidates. Because this is the first major election in Kenyan history to not feature any Kikuyu frontrunner, it placed an immense burden on both candidates to opt for someone from one of the Mount Kenya counties, the traditional homeland of the Kikuyu people. A highland region about 90 miles north of Nairobi, it features around eight counties with about six million votes, and this time around it is the ultimate swing region for the country as a whole. How margins trend in this region will likely end up deciding the entire election.

A map of Kenya’s 47 political counties. You see that area above Nairobi, starting with Kiambu? Kiambu, Nakuru, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Laikipia, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kirinyaga, Nyeri, Murang’a, and Machakos form the motherlode of this election. Central Kenya + Mount Kenya together have about 7.5 million votes and will be the crucial swing region of this entire election. Nairobi as well to the south will be a battlefield of its own even though it has a bit of an Odinga lean.

Odinga, already possessing three strongholds around far Western Kenya(with Kisumu as his fortress given his Luo ancestry), coastal regions around Mombasa, and likely Northeastern Kenya decided to opt for a well known female politician from the region called Martha Karua. Hailing from Kirinyaga county and once a prospect for Governor from the region, she has had a political presence since being elected to Parliament in 1992.

Hailed as the “Iron Lady” she has a reputation within Kenyan politics for being a persistent reformer and being a strongly spoken opponent of graft. Traditionally herself and Odinga have rarely been on the same team in terms of Kenyan politics, she made loaded accusations against Odinga of fanning ethnic flames following the embattled 2007 elections.

Politics though can make odd bedfellows of any of us, and it has now united Odinga and Karua for the same goal. This election if resulting in a victory sets her up nicely for a potential run for the presidency in 2027 or 2031, and from conversations with some Kenyans on the ground this is one motivating reason for them backing Odinga. So far polling hasn’t shown her being a huge vote asset in Central Kenya + Mount Kenya, but we’ll have to wait to see how things trend out this week in voting.

In terms of Ruto, as a Kalenjin he has a strong natural base in the Rift valley counties, and has already done an incredible job of rallying Mount Kenya support even while being at odds with the natural son of the region in his boss Uhuru Kenyatta.

He decided to double down on this focus by nominating a first term MP who once was Uhuru Kenyatta’s own personal assistant from 2002 through 2006, Rigathi Gachagua. Gachagua is every bit as fiery as his boss, openly provoking and insulting the opposition and well known as a huge mobilizer within the Mount Kenya region.

His personal failings call into huge questions that also often come up for his boss. He is currently under investigation by state agencies for reported graft for amounts up to $60 million USD and has had certain bank accounts frozen. Just like his running mate William Ruto who has been accused of land seizures and shady wealth sources, this adds to the unease the ticket generally generates among a certain corner of upper middle class Nairobians who are also unnerved by the class based rhetoric the pair rely on. If elected, these accusations of graft will likely be relegated to the sideline as the pair will assume control of the state machinery and can likely make any investigation quietly go away.

THE VOTE

Now let’s focus on the actual vote. It comes down to Odinga - Karua Vs Ruto - Gachagua, and the entire Kenyan map is their chessboard. Right now the map largely looks like this in terms of leanings.

For Ruto to win, he needs a huge margin in the Mount Kenya + Central Kenya region that we have discussed. He likely needs 66 % + in that region, a true rout of a victory to be safe. He also needs to get to at least 40 % of the vote in dense and multi-ethnic Nairobi to build upon that victory in Mount Kenya + Central Kenya. His last major task is to run well in the Western Luhya dominated states that are currently Odinga leaning states and not get completely blown away, getting 30 - 35 % in Busia and Kakamenga likely serves him well.

The equation for Ruto is thus 66 % in Mount Kenya/Central Region + 40 % in Nairobi + 30 - 35 % in Luhyaland, all of this likely merits him the specific coalition he needs to win the election and wake up President-Elect on the 10th, 11th, or 12th.

For Odinga, he needs to prevent a blockbuster Ruto win in Mount Kenya + Central Kenya and aim to obtain 35 - 40 % of the vote there, he needs a comprehensive win in Nairobi of 60 %+, and to ensure that he runs a rout across Western Kenya, even getting 70 % + in counties like Busia + Kakamenga. A solid victory across the coastal counties also likely gets him through the finish line and ensures that fifth time is lucky for Raila Odinga.

The equation for Odinga is thus 35 %+ in Central Kenya/Mount Kenya + 60 %+ in Nairobi + 70 %+ in Luhyaland + 50 %+ in the coastal states. All of the above means he wakes up in the latter end of this week finally the President-Elect of the country. It would mark celebrations in his stronghold of Kisumu like nothing they’ve ever seen before.

PARLIAMENT + GOVERNOR RACES

All the focus of this report has been on the presidential race so one would be amiss to think that’s the only race on Tuesday. Kenya has an electoral bonanza on Tuesday as all 290 Parliamentary constituencies are also up for the vote along with all 47 governor races for county governor. The parliamentary races matter as they should largely align with the presidential race, but if they don’t, it could result in that most rare of all events, a gridlocked African government, just as shockingly happened in Ghana in 2020. Such an event in Kenya would be a shock of massive proportion, resulting in a thousand think-pieces. Unlike the presidential race, individual parties are all contesting it against each other, even if they are allied with each other in the presidential elections.

Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance is contesting the most seats in the country, with up to 270 races being contested. His alliance partners are contesting far fewer races so this means that unless Ruto has a shockingly bad night on Tuesday his party should be either the centerpole of a majority government or certainly net enough seats to make him the leader of the opposition if he fails to win the presidency. In a few whacky scenarios he could potentially have a slight majority of parliament without being President, which would be very interesting…..

What will also be interesting in particular will be the face off results between Uhuru Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party and UDA in Mount Kenya + Central Kenya. Jubilee is fronting 179 representatives and so far early indications hint that it could be a brutal night for Jubilee. If these indications are wrong though, then Ruto’s route to a parliamentary majority start to look shaky and Uhuru may have the last laugh over his former ally.

Elsewhere, Odinga's Orange Democratic Movement party will front 180 seats and will certainly net a large chunk of its seats in the Luo nation centered around Kisumu as well as be a force throughout Western Kenya. They should certainly be the second largest party in parliament. Azimo is a true national force and has regional parties that should perform well everywhere from Somali dominant Northeastern Kenya to the Kenyan coast to of course Central Kenya with the Jubilee Party, so if the night goes well for Raila as a whole he should have his parliamentary majority on top of his presidential victory. The cherry on top of the cake.

The Governor races while not absolutely crucial to the Presidential race still matter to ordinary Kenyans as the existence of the new counties and Kenyan devolution means A LOT in terms of budgeting power, local responsibilities, and of course potential prospects for future power depending how they perform at the county level. My eyes will mostly be on Nairobi’s Gubernatorial race as Johnson Sakaja of UDA battles against Polycarp Igathe of Jubilee. This is going to be one of the countless UDA - Jubilee face-offs Tuesday night but this one matters intensely as Nairobi for the past two years has been under direct military control, and the winner will lead the policy agenda for one of Africa’s premier cities.

Sadly their campaign has barely been a brilliant policy masterclass in urban governance and I’m sure whoever wins will disappoint me plenty of times over the years by not maximizing Nairobi’s potential. I hope to be proven wrong though!

A WORLD OF TROUBLE

The conclusion of this election is unlikely to be a settled and well laughed end. Such is the animus and the stakes so high that the conclusion could be fairly messy, even if I doubt that it will reach 2007 levels as some analysts are worried about. Its my opinion that this election will be settled in the first round, I don’t see any of the third party candidates getting enough votes to push this into the second round, but there is a degree of possibility that it could happen, which would make a second round run off even more dramatic and more tense, extending the uncertainty for Kenya.

If one candidate does win comprehensively in the first round, so by at least 10 % , like say 53 % - 43 %, then even despite moaning from the losers we shouldn’t see much troubles, but a mandate of that size is unlikely.

It’s far more likely we see a winning margin of 1 - 4 %, and that such a result probably incites minor street protests not only in Nairobi but in the urban centers that are strongholds of the major candidates (Eldoret, Kisumu, Nakuru). Such a margin would also motivate lawsuits and a likely intervention from Kenyan courts to analyze claims of rigging, vote spoiling, or unfair interventions of any kind.

The winner will likely be dealing with the aftermath of immediate IMF negotiations, appointing a new government, and getting up to measure on varied regional developments such as the slowly emerging crisis in the DRC, so the less time spent on post electoral drama the better for Kenya and East Africa as a whole. The winner isn’t inheriting the economically buoyant Kenya of 2013, but a struggling and far more indebted one. In a worldwide atmosphere of rising inflation, compromised supply chains, and a complicated region. I wish the winner luck and certainly the very best for Kenyans all over this week.