Nigeria Finally Decides

The Primer to Africa's Biggest Election; Battleground States; Final Prediction

Finally at long last Saturday, February 25th 2023 is almost here. On Saturday, 93 million Nigerians are eligible to vote for their next president, who inherits arguably the world’s most unenviable policy slate.

A faltering economy, extreme youth unemployment, a still intense jihadist insurgency in Northern Nigeria, a troubling global transition away from oil, and ever constant ethnic + sectarian politics all awaits the winner of the election. This line is a bit tired now, but it truly is the most important election the country has ever faced after eight years of a woeful Buhari presidency.

Well that was a fun eight years, no?

Nigeria is an immensely resilient country. One where you almost quite wonder what could actually cause it to collapse given its still standing and still Africa’s biggest economy despite all its woes. But its clear that if the country is ever to realize its potential and stall a quite active brain drain, it needs better leadership and soon.

The three major contenders for the throne at the moment are Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the ruling party, the APC, the former Governor of Lagos State; Atiku Abubakar of the PDP, going for his sixth attempt at the President and a former Vice President; and last but certainly not least Peter Obi of the Labour Party, the former Anambra state governor who has created a youth movement that has added intrigue to the election.

To win the election outright in the first round, not only does a candidate need 50%+ of the vote but they also need at least 25 % of the vote in 24 of Nigeria’s 36 states, so as to reflect a wide geographic base of support. If no one meets this criteria, there will be a run off held within three weeks, with two candidates in that race, the one with the most number of votes, and the one closest to the 25 % geographic presence vote requirement.

A run off is totally possible than between the candidate who places first and third, second place guarantees absolutely nothing. With this in fact in mind then, the most likely run off scenario involves a race between Atiku Abubakar and Bola Tinubu given their broader national footprint. Peter Obi will have strong performances in the Southeast and South-South, but I struggle to see him reaching 25 % of the vote in most Northeastern and Northwestern states.

We all know of the generalities though, Peter Obi will be strong in the South-South and South-East and should do well in certain Middle Belt states with stronger Christian populations like Plateau and Benue. Tinubu should have the Southwest as his domain and will look to have traction in the North-Central while also securing Buhari’s base in the Northeast and Northwest. Atiku is looking to win the Northeast and Northwest, secure a decent performance in the Middle Belt and still retain some of the PDP base in the South-South and Southeast.

There are about seven states that the election will rest on and that may ignore the broader regional patterns, and we’ll dive into them one by one.

As you read these state summaries the big question for each candidate is as follow,

Peter Obi - “You’ve done a great job in being the most prominent third party bid ever for the Nigerian presidency. You’ve got the 11 - 12 states of the southeast and south-south under lock. You’ll certainly pass the 25 % margin in Lagos due to the young professional vote there, and you have three to four states in the middle belt where you’ve got a chance to win as well. But the rest of the country is pretty heavily Muslim/Northern, how are you getting to 24 states? maybe rest up for 2027 champion and next time nominate a stronger Northern vice president?”

Atiku Abubakar - “The PDP is a national organization and you’re a well known national entity so you’ll have no trouble surpassing the 25 % requirement in at least 24 states. You’ll certainly place second place in the southeast and south-south, and second in most middle belt states. Let’s be honest though you’re losing a lot of the major vote bank states in Rivers, Kano, and Lagos, so can you win enough in the Northeast and Northwest, can those Northern Muslim states come out for you enough to rally you home? If you lose this time, maybe its time to retire. Dubai is nice no?”

Bola Tinubu - “They call you Jagaban, but this has hardly been a dominating campaign from you. You should win Lagos, and the rest of the Southwest will rally for you as well since you are a son of the soil. However with your choice to nominate a Northern Muslim vice president, you have unexplainably staked your entire candidacy on APC Governors in the Northeast and Northwest rallying out for you and delivering Buhari’s base to you. You have alienated the Middle Belt’s Christians, you have no hope in Igboland, you need your APC rallying grounds to truly come for you, let’s not even mention that President Buhari has low key tried to sabotage you. Good luck sir.”

Rivers State

We start in the South-South, in the country’s most oil rich state, a state dominated by its fairly popular PDP Governor, Nyesom Wike. So shouldn’t this be an easy sell for Atiku Abubakar to do well in the state? Yes it would absent the massive feud between Wike and Abubakar, over Wike’s slight that he was not nominated for the VP role.

As a result Wike has instead endorsed Tinubu over the candidate representing his own party, and has seeked every opportunity to prevent active PDP campaigning in the state.

The main question in this state will be Obi’s margin of victory. If he records a percentage total of 75 %+, effectively a Goodluck Jonathan-esqe like victory margin in the state(thus depriving both other major candidates of getting it as a state where they got 25 % of the vote) then it will be a very long week ahead for Atiku Abubakar and Bola Tinubu, as it vastly increases the chance of a run off between those two candidates.

For Atiku Abubakar, such an Obi victory in Rivers means he will struggle to record a majority victory as it means enough of the PDP’s southern base has vacated their usual grounds. However a smaller margin of victory for Obi in Rivers means Abubakar likely is headed in my opinion along with several other combined factors to a first round Presidential victory.

Anambra

Anambra is Obi Country. This is the state he hails from, and where he was Governor for a stormy reign in which he had to battle the State’s political old guard. The more things change, the more they somehow stay the same, as an epic clash awaits here between Obi’s Labour party and the PDP old guard which has traditionally dominated politics in the state.

Anambra’s Governor, Charles Soludo, has been an active opponent of Peter Obi’s candidacy, and has complained that votes for him will lead to a Tinubu victory. Along with other prominent state officials he has allied with Atiku Abubakar and they have vowed to do what they can to detract Obi’s success within the state.

Sentiments on the ground are largely Pro Obi though seeing as it is his home state, and he has done wonders in terms of his national campaign, which has brought a large degree of local pride. The question here as well is how much will Obi win by?

If he gains a 75 %+ percentage base in the state, again it will be a long week ahead for Abubakar and Tinubu as it vastly increases the odds of a run off between those two. If he polls below that in his home state, then I would view that as a weak metric for Obi, one that bodes well for Atiku Abubakar as it means the PDP base in the region has been retained to a good degree.

Kano State

Let’s jump up to the North now, to its most populated state, and largely the one with the most votes cast each usual election, with six million voters up for grabs. Kano is not only the economic hub of the North, its also a complicated political picture due to the influence of a third party candidate, albeit one named Rabiu Kwankwaso. Rabiu Kwankwaso is heavily popular in Kano, and running under the banner of the NNPP, a regional third party.

Kano was one of Buhari’s vote banks during his many campaigns but his absence from the campaign this time means the state is up for grabs, largely between Tinubu and Kwankwaso. Obi is a non factor in this state and as Kano is a pretty rabid state in terms of its Islamic fervor, Atiku will be unable to inspire the same sentiment here that Buhari did.

The big question for Kano is the margin that Kwankwaso wins by. If he only wins with a plurality, and not even a majority than Tinubu can be very happy that he retained millions of votes which puts him in good stead likely though the North.

If Kwankwaso wins by a large degree, let’s say with 60 %+ of the vote, then that’s bad news for Tinubu and quite good news for Abubakar as it means Tinubu is likely running behind elsewhere in the North even with the support of Muslim APC governors. This would likely ensure that Tinubu could not win a majority of the national vote and would ensure a run-off, and a run off favors Abubakar by a long margin over Tinubu as Obi voters are more likely to vote in his camp.

If Tinubu somehow shocks Kwankwaso though and pips him to a Kano victory, then we are likely looking at signs that Tinubu is headed to a first round victory and Aso Rock, poised to then become the Jagaban of Nigeria at large.

Benue State

Benue is one of Nigeria’s agricultural rich states, a Middle Belt state, it hosts both Christians and Muslims, and has in recent years been stage to intense herder farmer clashes that have both ethnic and religious implications. Largely Christian dominated ethnic minorities are getting into gun fights and clashes with Fulani dominated herders who are moving increasingly south.

The Buhari Government has been bashed for its inaction on the issue and it has been yet another security issue in a dangerous country teeming with security issues.

The Governor of Benue State, a PDP loyalist known as Samuel Ortom, has gone along with Nyesom Wike and a few other PDP Governors in a collective known as the G5 in terms of not endorsing Atiku Abukabar. He has gone as far as to endorse Peter Obi, stating that he is a welcome opportunity for the country.

Benue is going to be a vastly interesting state because all three contenders could possibly be in the mix for at the very least 15 - 20 % of the vote. Peter Obi will likely win the state, but it will be interesting to see by what margins. A slight Obi victory and a second place Abubakar finish in the state serves Abubakar well. While if somehow Abubakar places third behind Tinubu in the state that is a complete disaster class for him and boosts the odds of a Tinubu first round victory.

A massive Obi win in the state, so 60 %+ of the vote, suggests that we are witnessing a national Obi triumph, and could maybe position him favorably for a run off, although I see this as unlikely, but it is in the realm of possibility.

Kaduna

A part of Northwestern and North-Central Nigeria, Kaduna is one of the chief battleground states which will reveal to us much of where the election is going. Kaduna is kind of Northern Nigeria in miniature. The North and Central regions of the state are dominated by the Hausa, while the South more-so resembles the Middle Belt in being composed of Christian speaking minorities.

An APC ruled state as well, it is politically dominated by controversial Governor Nasir Ahmed El-Rufai, who has been a fervent ally of Bola Tinubu and has even attacked President Buhari and his lukewarm support on Tinubu’s behalf. Kaduna therefore is a state where all three major candidates have a swing/demographic to appeal towards.

The big question here is who secures the victory between Abubkar and Tinubu. A loss here for Tinubu screams disaster as it is a state he must secure if his thesis of a Muslim- Muslim ticket leading to gains in the North is to bear out.

A loss for Abubakar isn’t as big a disaster, but it also means he is unlikely to secure a first round victory and he may as well start preparing for a second round run-off.

If Peter Obi somehow secures 25 %+ of the vote here, then we are definitely witnessing an awe inspiring Obi national performance and we may be wrong on him not hitting 24 states. That could open the door to Obi making it into the run-off rounds. So if my Obi thesis is wrong, then Kaduna should be one of the states where we witness a key development that overturns it.

Osun State

Osun has been quite a competitive state the past few election cycles, both on a federal level as well as the state level. Davido fans will be pleased to hear his uncle is the Governor of this state, a state that he had to claw and fight to win in the last gubernatorial election.

The metrics for this state are quite simple, if Tinubu does not win it, then write off his candidacy completely. Tinubu quite frankly needs to sweep the Southwest, and this is a part of the broader Yoruba heartland. If Abubakar can win the state, then we’re likely looking at a first round Abubakar victory, and Tinubu should honestly weep at how shoddy his get out the vote operations have gone in his own backyard.

For Peter Obi, the question here for him is if he can get to 25 % of the vote in the state, certain polls show him within range at around 20 % of the vote. If we are truly seeing a generational outcome for Peter Obi, and he cracks 25 % here, then you’re likely seeing one of the trendlines that would point to Peter Obi making it to the Run-offs or nearly cracking it.

Lagos State

I saved the best for last. Nigeria’s most populated state, as well as its economic hub. There are a lot of votes here to claim and a lot of competition, about seven million votes in total.

This is Bola Tinubu’s backyard, the state where his machine has dominated for over twenty years and where Governors swear fealty to his vision and endorsement to even serve comfortably.

This is a MUST WIN for Tinubu, and I would say he needs 55 %+ of the vote to really underline any scenario where he wins in the first round. Anything below that, and a loss to Obi in this state would spell an end to any hope of him winning the presidency and would be a quite sad outcome for someone who considers himself the King of the City.

Lagos of course is not just a Yoruba dominated city, it is Nigeria’s cosmopolitan heart and home to migrants from across the country. This includes a large population of those who hail from the Niger Delta as well as the Nigerian southeast. It also is home to an increasingly “tribeless” mixed blend of young high income earners. Both of these two populations might well come out in high numbers and help to swing a positive outcome for Peter Obi, who seems well placed to finish second in the state.

If turnout is extremely high in Lagos, which traditionally is a low turnout state, that bodes well for Obi. Any scenario where Obi polls higher than 40 % in Lagos, and any scenario where he actually wins Lagos State would indicate we are living in a world where Obi is headed to a runoff likely against Abubakar, and would be a surprise not only to this commentator but many others.

For Atiku, his chances are best served by a Lagos where no one wins a majority and he edges out at least 25 % of the vote regardless. Such a scenario would paint the odds quite highly of a comfortable first round victory for him.

Lagos I imagine will be host to some truly terrible scenes on Saturday. It is a must win big state for Tinubu so I imagine we’ll see some limited violence at certain polling booths as well as attempts to rig the vote in certain neighborhoods. It is Nigeria.

Final Prediction

It should not be a surprise based on everything that I have written that I project that Atiku Abubakar will be the next president of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. His nationwide machine should ensure that he places second across the southeast and southwest, and I do not see Obi running up the score to the extent that he won’t be able to get 25 %+ of the vote across most of the states in those two regions. In the North-Central + Middle Belt he should be a strong second placed contender as well as win a few of those states. I think he should cap this off with a strong performance in the Northeast and Northwest, defying Tinubu’s plans in those regions.

If he does worse than intended on election day, he should still have enough to make it to the run-off, and I think he would do favorably well against either Tinubu or Obi as he is more palatable to either’s supporters than the reverse.

If there is a run off I see it being between Tinubu and Abubkar. Peter Obi has run a fine race, but get out the vote efforts(GOTV) are everything in Nigeria, and I think this is where he will falter on election day, added to the fact that his presence in the Northwest and Northeast is extremely weak. Obi voters are far more likely to back Abubakar than Tinubu however so that would seal the deal for Abubakar in a run-off, especially if he offers Obi some major concessions post first round.

Peter Obi has distinguished himself as a gifted campaigner who can inspire the young and vast regions of Southern Nigeria, it need not be the end of his career and he should certainly keep trying like Buhari until he wins one day. Although the demographic portrait for his chances do get worse year after year as Nigeria is in the midst of becoming a comfortably Muslim majority state so this and 2027 likely represent his best shot.

Regardless this election has served us memorable moments, intense speculation, and the results will be pored over next week for sure. I’ll publish a post retrospective next week looking at the actual results and what they tell us about Modern Nigeria.

Stay safe everyone and have a lovely weekend with loved ones and family.