Jagaban The First

Tinubu continues his potentially victorious quest for the Nigerian Presidency

Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Jagaban. The King Of Lagos. Since he captured the APC nomination in May, his entire candidacy has been one storm of controversy, hype, and seemingly negative attention. His campaign from a Western political lens would be what we would call unpredictable. He spent whole months in the summer estranged in London on a medical bed, with campaign surrogates forced to defend him on Twitter and the Nigerian press to keep his troops momentum high. Meanwhile Peter Obi was seemingly everywhere from Lagos to New York to London frantically gaining mindshare and hearts, showing the voters genuine respect and determination.

Perhaps the central character of next year’s election saga, Bola Ahmed Tinubu. The Jagaban of Lagos aiming to become Nigeria’s Jagaban.

About a month ago he retuned back to Lagos to massive shock. To some circles it was a surprise the man was not as rumored, dead or dying. That’s a consistent theme of Jagaban’s life though, the man is often seen as dead or completely underestimated, and then he somehow someway makes a comeback. BAT isn’t the most inspirational speaker, he certainly doesn’t offer much new from a policy perspective, but in comparison to his rivals to the presidency, Peter Obi, Atiku Abubakar, and Rabiu Kwankwaso, the man is a verified survivor.

As the ever fabulous David Hundeyin put it in his expose on BAT, the man has been an enigma for decades. He left for the US in the 1970s and quickly established a middle class life based on his accounting career, before being linked to various Nigerian drug lords in inner city Chicago in the 1980s and 1990s as a middleman hosting funds for them.

He then returned to Nigeria just in time for the 1993 presidential elections where along with a cohort of other young bright lights at the time in terms of Atiku Abubakar, Rabiu Kwankwaso, and Umara Yar'Dua, they coalesced around the banner of the Social Democratic Party(SPD). The SPD was led by the charismatic Moshood Abiola, who was the rightful winner of Nigeria's 1993 presidential election until he sadly had the results terminated and was then falsefully imprisoned. Tinubu won a senate seat at that election for sections of Lagos. His political ascendancy seemed guaranteed until the reality of the Abacha years hit.

With his political privileges temporarily denied, he quickly became known throughout Southwestern Nigeria as a part of the National Democratic Coalition(NADECO), a faction of politicians and activists which fought for the restoration of democracy even as Sani Abacha hunted, murdered, and exiled many. Luckily for Tinubu, in 1998, while having group sex with Indian prostitutes Sani Abacha's heart gave out and Nigeria's democratic experiment was restored with the creation of the now present Fourth Republic.

From that moment onwards he established himself as Lagos State's Governor, serving for two terms until 2007. More importantly, since that day he set up an urban political machine that would draw smiles from 19th century American municipal political machines, such as New York City's infamous Tammany Hall. His successors in the position as Governor, Babatunde Fashola, Akinwumni Ambode, and Sanwo Olu all largely owed the position to him and continued to run the city in the arrangement that he favored.

Its this Lagosian dominance that has served at the core of his myth. Take it from his defenders and Lagos State is the best run state in all of Nigeria. It has the highest tax revenues, some apparatus of property zoning, and a continual stream of migrants that shows that the most ambitious Nigerians are voting for Lagos state with their feet. Lagos is in this worldview the centre of excellence and its largely due to Jagaban’s sterling leadership.

Take it from his opponents though and Jagaban created a criminal machine in the heart of Nigeria’s largest state economy. He intimidated opponents through his control of certain transit linked unions, failed to create mass transit infrastructure, and largely served as the head of a massive embezzlement ring that has served to keep Lagos chaotic and from reaching its full potential. To a certain segment of indigenous Yoruba + aligned members of the Saro community as well, BAT and his cronies are usurpers of a proud heritage of commerce and cosmopolitanism. They dress themselves in the flag of Lagos but stand opposed towards the State’s uplift.

Regardless how one feels about Bola Tinubu, it would be a mistake to underestimate the man’s political chances for the presidency.